US airstrikes: Iran is rushing its oil exports out as conflict resumes, but who will buy?
Iran has accelerated crude shipments, dispatching oil tankers carrying about 11 million barrels over the past 24 hours as tensions with the US escalate once again and President Donald Trump threatens to reinstate a blockade on the country’s ports.According to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, five very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and one Suezmax departed Iranian ports. By Thursday, four of those tankers were broadcasting their positions in the Gulf of Oman, while another was making its way through the Strait of Hormuz.The departures coincided with a second consecutive day of US military strikes on Iran, launched in response to Tehran’s recent attacks on commercial vessels. The renewed hostilities have put the fragile peace agreement between the two countries at risk. The latest escalation has also made other shipping operators increasingly cautious, with most visible vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz largely coming to a standstill.Also Read | Trump’s ceasefire ‘over’ remarks & fresh Strait of Hormuz disruptions: What it means for IndiaThe renewed disruption unsettled the oil market, pushing prices higher. Brent crude in London traded close to $79 a barrel on Thursday, taking its gain for the week to nearly 9%.The 11 million barrels shipped over the past day are roughly equal to Iran’s pre-war crude exports for an entire week. It remains uncertain, however, whether buyers will be available for those cargoes. Earlier this week, tens of millions of barrels of Iranian oil were effectively stranded aboard tankers after the US reversed a waiver that had previously allowed the Islamic Republic to market its crude.Oil tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz had slowed to almost a complete halt by Thursday, according to shipping data and industry sources quoted by Reuters, as renewed US airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory action in the Gulf sharply increased risks for maritime transport.Only two tankers had passed through the strategic waterway during the early hours of Thursday. Among them was the crude supertanker Berg 1, which loaded its cargo at Iran’s Kharg Island and is under US sanctions, according to Kpler’s analysis.Industry sources told Reuters that a growing number of vessels were disabling their public Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders, reducing the visibility of ship movements through the strait.“Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped, which tells you more about risk perception right now than any statement from Washington or Tehran,” Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, wrote in a report.Before the conflict began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz carried around one-fifth of global oil supplies.Over the past two weeks, daily vessel movements through the strait had climbed to their highest level since the war started, averaging about 40 transits a day. Even so, that remained well below the pre-conflict norm of between 125 and 140 daily sailings.
